Really? This is an Improvement?

As President Obama once again goes into campaign mode, now for the “final” push for passing “Health-Care Reform”, he apparently believes that his silver-tongued oratory can change falsehood into truth. In every speech, he ardently claims this “reform” will lower costs and help the economy. Is that so? Yet his arguments are pure rhetoric. Not once has he laid out a specific and quantifiable explanation how the Senate Bill will lower costs. He hasn’t done so because he can’t. Further more, for him, costs and truth will not get in the way of his and the Democratic leadership’s efforts to impose his big government and progressive vision on the citizens of our republic who reject this vision.

His “all rhetoric and no substance” modus operandi was displayed in its stark reality during his recent “Health-Care Summit”. After the President’s usual eloquent introduction, Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin presented to him the following analysis of the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate that indicated that the Senate Health-care bill would lower the deficit by $131 billion dollars over the next 10 years. He began by expressing his confidence in and respect for the CBO, but explained that the CBO estimates are only as good as the assumptions they are instructed to use. He first pointed out that the CBO estimate assumes 10 years of tax collections for 6 years of spending on this new entitlement program. He next identified that the CBO estimate counts $52 billion of increased Social Security revenues toward defraying the costs of this new program. The SS program itself has an estimated $17 trillion dollar unfunded liability. That $52 billion can be put to one or the other program, but not both. Similarly, the estimate also includes $78 billion of premiums from the CLASS program (Federal long-term care program). Again, those dollars can be applied to one or the other program, but not both. Perhaps most significantly, the estimate includes taking $500 billion out of Medicare to apply to this new entitlement. Yes, the same Medicare program that currently has an estimated $89 trillion dollar unfunded liability. He further pointed out the Medicare’s Chief Actuary predicts that diverting $500 billion from Medicare will result in 20% of providers dropping Medicare patients and also result in millions of seniors losing their Medicare Advantage coverage.

Recalculating the CBO estimate utilizing assumptions that closer reflect reality, Congressman Ryan concluded this new entitlement would further expand the deficit by $460 billion dollars over 10 years, not reduce the deficit by $131 billion deficit reduction as claimed by the proponents of the current Senate health-care bill. Over the 2nd ten years, the estimated deficit expands to $1.4 trillion.

This more accurate estimate, disturbing as it is, in all likelihood, reflects likely a best case scenario. The Federal government health-care cost estimates are notoriously inaccurate. Just 2 examples: 1. During its first year, Medicaid was expected to cost $238 million but wound up costing over $ 1 billion. In fiscal 2009, Medicaid cost $251 billion. 2. In 1965, the CBO estimated that Medicare costs would be $12 billion in 1990. Turns out the “reality” number was $90 billion, off by more than a factor of 7.

At his “Health-care Summit”, President Obama didn’t refute or even substantively address a single argument made by Congressman Ryan; he simply changed the subject with another rhetorical flourish.

President Obama correctly assesses that controlling heath-care costs is essential for the well being of our economy and the government’s fiscal condition, but could hardly be more dishonest in insisting the reform he and the Democratic majority are shamefully (e.g. reconciliation, deeming the Senate Bill passed without a vote) working hard to impose on the citizens of this Republic, will make the situation better and not worse.